MaiCoin Digital Asset Weekly, Sep 27 2019

MaiCoin Digital Asset Weekly, Sep 27 2019


Digital Assets ended the week -21% for the 2nd largest weekly decline of the year. Volume this week was more active for a daily average of $63B, +12% WoW. Declines this week were very broad based with only 10% of the top 200 coins and tokens ending the week higher.

Headlines this week looked to attribute the sell off to a number of items including allegations of CME price maniputalion and volatility in BTC hashrate statistics. The real reason, though, I think was simply a cathartic resolution to 4 months of price consolidation. The direction was probably set by the Trump Impeachment sell off in tradtional markets. BTC was clearly preparing to lead the market out of 4 months of triangular price consolidation, while we felt a break higher was more likely — a sharp move lower this week shouldn’t have been much of a surprise.

Bakkt’s launch was the focus of headlines in the first half of the week. Outside of that, top headlines included: 1) Venezuela’s Central Bank looking at custodying BTC, 2) BTC hashrate hitting a new all time high, 3) Zuckerberg turning cautious on Libra, 4) Gemini expanding its custody offering and 5) Bitfinex/Tether making headway in their NYAG case.

Despite a number of flashing oversold and inflection indicators (TD Sequential Red 9, Mayer Multiple of 0.96, RSI of 19 and a 50 Day Z Score of -2.9) this pull back could still separate fingers from hands. BTC is hovering just under 2 key levels — the 200 day moving average of around $8,300 and the 2018 full year VWAP $8,500. Next week will be key. If BTC can’t rally above $8,500 in the next few days then the mid term up trend is probbly at risk of breaking down.



Chart 1. On this day…
– BTC, LTC and BNB still at their best prices ever for this point in September
– Others down of peaks set in 2018 or earlier

Chart 2. Price change matrix
– Everything deep red over all periods

Chart 3. Price vs Volume
– Almost everything in the lower right — price declines on big volume

Chart 4. WoW % Change

Chart 5. Volume Z Score

Chart 5. Average daily volume — by month
– USDT, ETH, EOS, XRP and TRX all tracking up MoM

Chart 6. Average daily volume in top 3 actively traded
– Volume up after 3 months of consecutive declines

Chart 7. BTC vs Alt Coins