MaiCoin Digital Asset Weekly, Apr 12 2019

MaiCoin Digital Asset Weekly, April 12 2019


Digital Assets -3% this week, down for only the 2nd time over the previous 10 weeks. Trading remained active with volume this week +8% vs the previous week for a daily average of US$54B.

Declines this week were broad based with only 40% of the top 200 Coins / Tokens ending the week higher. Bluechips outperformed the rest of the space, though, with modest gains in BTC, ETH and EOS helping to offset declines in small mid caps. Exchange tokens were the hardest hit major sector led by profit taking in KCS and BNB.

Headlines this week were a mixed bag. Regulatory news was the focus of the week, though, with 1. China announcing plans to ban mining, 2. Bitstamp receiving a NY BitLicense, 3. Bittrex not getting a NY BitLicense, and 4. Taiwan expecting to publish an STO framework by June. Other major stories included: 1. Harvard’s US$39B endowment fund investing in a token sale, 2. Bithumb positing a large 2018 loss and 3. Binance threatening to delist BSV.

Going into next week, we expect BTC to remain a bellwether for the space. BTC outperformance relative to the rest of the space likely foreshadows some degree of mean reversion incoming. This will either manifest itself in the form of 1. BTC following smaller Coins / Tokens lower or 2. another rip in smaller, higher beta Coins / Tokens. If BTC can hold the $5,000 level this weekend, we think that confidence in this rally will be bolstered and that the most likely scenario is for another rally in smaller Coins / Tokens. We expect the 200 day moving average to provide support across the space at ~ US$146B. Declines in high flyers this week have let some steam out of the market. This now sets us up for a potential refill of the Nov 2018 gap lower and for the 2nd leg of the rally which could see a test of the US$200B market cap level



Chart 1. Price vs Volume
– Volume again robust in most major Coins / Tokens
– BTC, ETH, EOS and ETC the best this week in terms of both price and volume

Chart 2. Major Thematics
– Sharp drop in KCS this week weighed heavily on Exchange Tokens

Chart 3. 7 Day Price Change
– XMR led gains amongst major Coins / Tokens, BSV led declines

Chart 4. 50 Day Z Score
– Most major Coins / Tokens mean reverted towards neutral this week

Chart 5. Monthly ADV vs Record High Monthly ADV
– BTC, DASH, EOS, ETH and LTC all on pace for the best month of ADV ever
– XRP and TRX remain notable laggards

Chart 6. Monthly ADV
– BTC tracking US$17B / Day this month. Its best month ever

Chart 7. Lightning Network Stats
– BTC Capacity up to 1,079. A new record high, but growth looks to be slowing
– Channel growth this month tracking an 8M low, Node growth an 11M low