MaiCoin Digital Asset Weekly, July 5 2019

Digital Asset Weekly, July 5 2019


Digital Assets recovered from a week low of -7.5% to end -2%. Overall turnover across the space fell -11% WoW to a daily average of $83B. Breadth was skewed to the negative with just 45% of the top 200 coins and tokens ending the week higher. BTC dominance remained at the extreme top end of the 52 week range — accounting for 62% of total market cap — as Alt coins continued to bear the brunt of selling.

Trading this week was concentrated in big caps with BTC, EOS and LTC starting July with very active trading, easing volume declines in smaller coins and tokens.

Overall industry news sentiment was weaker this week with bullish BTC stories falling to 66% from 81% last week. Regulatory scrutiny was the focus of headlines with: 1. G20 supportingg FATF guidelines, 2. US legislators calling on FB to halt Libra development, 3. UK proposing a ban on retail participation in crypto derivatives and 4. South Korea’s Shinhan Bank tightening crypto exchange policies.

Outside of regulatory news the main stories were exchange focused with Bitfinex paying back $100M of its Tether loan (ahead of schedule) and Binance confirming plans to launch leveraged futures trading.

Looking into next week, would expect some degree of consolidation. While some steam has been let out of the May / June rally, the Mayer Multiple remains elevated at 2.02 (ratio of price: 200 day moving average). Over the past 2,000 days, Mayer Multiples ≥ this level have only accounted for around 7% of total price closes; meaning that the most likely scenario is for price to fall somewhat as the 200 day moving average continues to trend higher. Expect to see support at around the $10,600 given the convergence of the 20 day moving average and Fibonacci support around this level. If that line fails to hold then we may see a correction to the $8,000 — $9,000 level discussed last week.



Chart 1. Weekly price vs volume

Chart 2. Weekly price change

Chart 3. Major thematics

Chart 4. Monthly average daily volume as % of historic high

Chart 5. MTD average daily volume

Chart 6. Price 50 day z score